Last Sunday’s Record Book Receiving Feat and the Scandal of the Inarguable Top-5 Most Dominant Receiver Performances in the NFL

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On Sunday, November 29, 2020 football lovers were able to see one of the most dominating performances by a receiver in the history of the NFL. A performance so off the charts, it sent analysts frenzying towards the record books for comparison. The spectacle took place in the late-afternoon slate of games, set in the middle of the country where all eyes focused their gaze on this gutsy performance. If you watched football Sunday on this Week 12, you know exactly which receiver I’m referring to here: Noah Fant.

That’s right, while some focused-on Tyreek Hill gaining only as many yards in a game as some guy named Del Shofner in 1962, Hill’s yardage only tied for 13th most in NFL history. Meanwhile, Fant entered the annals of NFL history by being one of the very few receivers to gain 100 percent of his teams total passing yards. Compare this to Tyreek Hills paltry 58 percent in Week 12. Note that I’m talking about gross passing yards and am not subtracting yards lost on sacks, making such a feat that much more difficult. Fant completed this dazzling masterpiece on Sunday by snagging home 1 of 2 targets for a combined 13 yards. This was the only offensive completion of the game for the Broncos.

You might not be as impressed in an output of just 13 receiving yards, but when you control for the quality of a receiver’s quarterback as this metric clearly does, only a true alpha can totally dominate his fellow route runners and take in every single catch through four quarters and 60 minutes. In fact, only two other times in the last 20 years (as far back as my data goes) has this occurred, making it much rarer than Tyreek Hill’s lame 269 yards receiving.

To put this in proper context, I plotted out every single one of the 90,000 plus weekly receiving team yardage share outputs (anyone who caught a pass in a game) over the last 20 years below:

With the red line indicating 100 percent receiving yard share, you see Noah Fant’s top right-most dot dead on that red line. Only two others share that line of latitude with Fant, with most of the 90k observations falling between 0 and 40 percent. In the spirit of celebrating this feat, I thought it’d be fun to pit the top-5 performances from this graph to regale on the majesty of Fant and his brethren’s true domination of their craft in these given games.

 

Number 5

 

Qadry Ismail (96.3% Receiving Yard Share): Week 14, 1999 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Coming in at a solid #5 on the list is Qadry (brother of Rocket) Ismail. With touchdown catches of 54, 59, and 76 yards in this game, Qadry totaled 258 on six receptions helping the Ravens take down the Steelers 31 – 24. He did all of this with journeyman (euphemism for “not great”) quarterback Tony Banks. While certainly a decent day at the office for Qadry, he slipped up in the second quarter, allowing backup wide receiver Billy Davis to get open for a seven-yard pass on 2nd and 12. Ismail slipped again in the 3rd quarter allowing backup running back Charles Evans to steal 3 yards of receiving market share from him on a 1st and 10. While these two plays were the only completed passes Ismail did not catch, taking any plays off like this is just not good enough to place in the record books. As you’ll see, the storied “gross passing yardage received market share” record (working title) demands perfection and more to be one of the true greats.

I’m not sure if Qadry will ever be able to live this shortcoming of a game down, or if his brother Rocket even talks to him anymore, but I think he should probably still take solace in at least having the 20th most receiving yards for a single game in NFL history. It’s not much, but it’s something.

Three Way tie for #2

 

Number 2A

 

Billy Miller (100% Receiving Yard Share): Week 14, 2002 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Billy Miller helped the Houston Texans route the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game 24-6 hauling in 100% of the Texans 33 total passing yards. The impact of this performance was evident from each of the Texans four scoring plays:

Quarter Time Tm Detail HOU PIT
1 5:54 Texans Kenny Wright 40 yard defensive fumble return (Kris Brown kick) 7 0
1 2:01 Texans Aaron Glenn 70 yard interception return (Kris Brown kick) 14 0
4 3:35 Texans Kris Brown 43 yard field goal 17 6
4 2:02 Texans Aaron Glenn 65 yard interception return (Kris Brown kick) 24 6

Credit: Pro Football Reference

Miller’s first catch was a nine-yard snag in the second quarter on a 1st and 10. This set the table for a 2nd and 1 rush by Jonathan Wells for no gain, followed by another Jonathan Wells rush of -2 yards. The Texans punted on 4th and 3. Miller’s second catch of the day netted nine yards on a 2nd and 10. This allowed quarterback David Carr to fire a dart to Jarrod Baxter on a 3rd and 1 incompletion followed by another punt. But on his third and final grab of the day, Miller took matters in his own hands on 2nd and 10 by gaining 15 yards and a first down capping his Mona Lisa of a performance. Four plays later, the Texans punted.

 

Number 2B

 

Brandon Lloyd (100% Receiving Yard Share): Week 10, 2005 vs. Chicago Bears

You might be surprised to learn that a team who mustered only 28 passing yards in an NFL game only lost by eight points, but that’s because you haven’t yet been told that the winning team was the Kyle Orton led Chicago Bears. In a game devoid of anything remotely construable as interesting on either offense, these two teams combined for 95 passing yards, ranking 3rd lowest out of 5,755 games in at least the last 20 years. However, you will soon find that this is somehow not even the least productive combined passing game included in this list. Sticking with the game at hand, the following scrunched up graph shows a sliver of a bar for each of the 5,755 games played since 1999 indicating the combined passing yards by both teams and a red line drawn at the 95 yards achieved in this assailing affair.

Let’s get the microscope out on this graph and zoom in on just the games with less than 250 total passing yards for two fully-salaried offenses. This allows us to focus in on just how pathetic of a game this truly was:

In this game, Bears’ quarterback Kyle Orton went the distance throwing 8-13 for 67 yards, no touchdowns and an interception in a brave effort that shred any hint of doubt that he was the better quarterback in this matchup. For the 49ers, the most flattering way I can put this is that “quarterback” Cody “Pickett” successfully completed 100% of his only completed pass out of 13 attempts on the day. This completion to Brandon Lloyd went for 28 yards leaving those still awake watching this game wondering if such an act were within the rules. This pass ended up being the final completion of the aptly named Cody “Pickett” era (2004-2005), but it made Pickett a martyr as he heroically sent Brandon Lloyd near the top of this illustrious receiving share record. And yes, if you must know, Cody Pickett did indeed throw a pick in this game.

 

Number 2C

 

Noah Fant (100% Receiving Yard Share): Week 12, 2020 vs. New Orleans Saints

As we all recently witnessed, Noah Fant did the impossible and caught a pass while on a team with literally no rostered quarterback. That makes this the most impressive of the three 100 percent yardage share record holders. His 13-yard catch fueled the Broncos down the field setting up their only three points of the game. What was more insane about this game is that neither team really had a rostered quarterback as the Saints used Swiss Army knife tight end Taysom Hill. I teased above that the 95 combined passing yards gained by the 49ers and Bears wasn’t even the lowest on this list despite being third lowest out the last 5,755 NFL games played. Well, this Broncos/Saints game came in dead last with 91 total passing yards. If you’re by any chance a fan of passing in the NFL, this game was mathematically the most boring game of the 21st century.

At this point, you are probably wondering where the #1 dot is on the graph and perhaps even how anyone can physically or mathematically gain more than 100 percent of a team’s total passing yards. Well, I deceived you a little bit as the plotted yardage share outputs are actually zoomed in and missing two very relevant dots. Here’s the fully zoomed out graph, revealing both players on polar opposite ends of the spectrum, including the #1 on this list:

 

Number 1

 

Nate Washington (314% Receiving Yard Share): Week 6, 2009 vs New England Patriots

While the 314% figure will definitely take some explanation, it makes some sense that the most dominating performance in team receiving yard share for a single game in modern NFL history occurred in one of the biggest blowouts in NFL history. In this game, the New England Patriots dismantled the Tennessee Titans 59-0 during a full-out blizzard. You may or may not be surprised to hear that our record holder of note, wide receiver Nate Washington, was on the team that finished with zero points. But all this detracts from the truly perplexing idea that a player can gain three times as many receiving yards as his entire team combined. Well, before explaining how this could be, let me first confuse you further with a clip of every Nate Washington reception and yards gained from that game earning the #1 spot on this vaunted list. In case you think the video is mistakenly cut off, the clip lasts 20 seconds in its entirety and consists of a total of one play:

Quick aside: in watching the end of this clip as Kerry Collins depressingly walks off the field with his head down while lacking the required will necessary to take his chin strap off, I’m comfortable saying I have never felt the need to give a grown man I’ve never met a hug more in my life. Think about it. This guy spent the entire week – likely waking up at 5am every day, to study film, work out strategy, self-scout, lift weights, and prepare for this matchup as a proud professional. And sure, down 52-0 at this point in the game, winning was not an option, but the Titans had finally managed to make their way into scoring territory from a few successful rushes until all was lost on this blown 4th down catastrophe.

I mean, this play was doomed from the very start. Kerry Collins took the snap and dropped back with the bodily equilibrium of an amateur bull rider, and chucked this “pass” down the field all of maybe 8 air-inches to Nate Washington somewhere around nine yards behind the line of scrimmage:

(sorry about the play button but this is just an image)

The above still frame is not exactly what you want to see on film. But as bad as this looks, things only got worse from this point in the play though as Washington ended up netting a gentlemen’s -22 yards in full. This was Kerry Collins’ last completion of the night as he ended 2-12 with an official total of -7 passing yards. Fun fact: despite being benched in this game soon after this play, Collins’ -7 yard performance was the better of the Titans two quarterbacks by QB Rating as Vince Young went 0-2 with an interception in relief.

The Math… Checks Out???

OK, time to explain how this atrocity of a football play singlehandedly provided Nate Washington 314% of his teams receiving yards. Mathematically speaking, Washington’s -22 total yards receiving is divided by the Titans -7 team total passing yards. This equals a positive 3.14 because as our lunatic math teachers taught us, a negative divided by a negative equals a positive. This is the only game in my data that contains a team with less than zero passing yards, making this entire ridiculous situation possible.

But look: we all know this is a sham of a record and the only reason Nate Washington ended up #1 was due to a lame failure in mathematics. You can’t lose yards in a game and get credit for positive target share. In fact, if anything, this performance was really the worst in NFL history in terms of yardage share – not the best.

But if not Nate, then who? We won’t need to stray far for the answer. Recall that Kerry Collins went 2-12 for -7 yards and Vince Young went 0-2 for 0 yards giving us a grand total of 2 completed passes for the Titans in this game. Given that we know Nate Washington caught one pass for -22 yards, this leaves a positive 15-yard catch unaccounted for. And since a positive divided by a negative is, by rule a negative, the least likely dot (sitting at -214%) on the zoomed-out graph represents the true and rightful occupant of this glorious throne.

I present to you, Ahmard Hall:

This is our true #1 receiver yardage share record holder; the possessor of the holy grail of receiving domination. Just look at this legend run the ever so technical flat-route and hurdle like a stallion over a defender easily five and-a-half centimeters in the air. And this all came from the same game as the fraud, Nate Washington. But since the Titans threw negative total yards in this game, Hall’s 15 yards divided by -7 total passing yards = -2.14 (or -214%). But in reality, since any amount of yards is infinitely times bigger than any negative number, Ahmard Hall is not only the true possessor of the #1 spot at infinity percent, but his record will stand atop the books until the end of time.

Side note: This wasn’t Ahmard Hall’s only moment of glory in this game. He also had one rush for five yards. He fumbled the ball on this play which was recovered by the other team.

So, there you have it. The top-5 receiver team passing yards share leaders in the modern century, and maybe ever. Of course, the real fun here was discovering the story behind the players over the feats they accomplished, including the uncovering of the scandal showing Nate Washington for the fraud that he was, the true hero Ahmard Hall will always be, and Kerry Collins, the dejected quarterback who probably still needs a hug.

– El Jefe

Big thanks to Pro Football Reference and NFLFastR for making this possible.

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